Arizona's comparable FBI window (2014–2024, 10 years) splits: one major offense rate rose while the other fell — the lead series is the larger |endpoint %| move.
Split-window verdict
Arizona's violent crime rate rose 11.7% from 2014 to 2024; its property crime rate fell 43.2%. A single combined label would hide that split, so the evidence below keeps the two series separate.
Full-window endpoints
Violent crime moved from 383.8 to 428.6 per 100,000 (+11.7%). Property crime moved from 3143.2 to 1786.0 (-43.2%). These are endpoint comparisons, not proof that every intervening year followed the same direction.
Peak and trough
The highest observed violent-crime rate was 509.8 in 2017; the lowest was 383.8 in 2014. The latest value lies 36% of the way from that low to that peak, which shows whether the endpoint is close to an extreme or near the middle of the observed range.
Recent direction check
From 2020 to 2024, the violent-crime rate fell 10.0%, compared with +11.7% across the full 2014-2024 window. That difference is why the latest few observations should be read separately from the decade-scale endpoints.
Latest national comparison
For 2024, the state rate was 428.6 per 100,000 versus 352.0 across the state records in this dataset, a gap of 21.8% above. This is a state-level benchmark, not a neighborhood-safety conclusion.
Year-to-year movement
The largest annual change ran from 2014 to 2015: +14.2%. Across the full sequence, 4 year-to-year steps rose by more than 1% and 4 fell by more than 1%. A single sharp step can reflect participation or reporting changes as well as a real change in recorded offenses.
Rate denominator
The reported population changed from 6,731,484 to 7,582,384 (+12.6%). Rates account for that denominator change; raw offense counts do not. This is one reason a count and a per-100,000 rate can move by different percentages over the same years.
Arizona's property rate fell 11.9% (-254.3 per 100K) from 2022 to 2023 (2141.0 → 1886.7) — the sharpest comparable year-to-year step in this window.
Arizona's property gap vs the US aggregate moved from 24.7% above in 2014 to 4.4% above in 2024 (-20.3 pp).
| Year | Coverage | Population | Property | Rate | YoY | Violent | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Comparable | 7,582,384 | 135,423 | 1786 | ↓ 5.3% | 32,495 | 428.6 |
| 2023 | Comparable | 7,431,344 | 140,204 | 1886.7 | ↓ 11.9% | 31,711 | 426.7 |
| 2022 | Comparable | 7,359,197 | 157,557 | 2141 | - | 33,002 | 448.4 |
| 2021 | Insufficient reporting | 7,276,316 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2020 | Comparable | 7,421,401 | 164,700 | 2219.3 | ↓ 8.1% | 35,356 | 476.4 |
| 2019 | Comparable | 7,278,717 | 175,760 | 2414.7 | ↓ 9.8% | 32,571 | 447.5 |
| 2018 | Comparable | 7,171,646 | 192,047 | 2677.9 | ↓ 8.5% | 33,531 | 467.5 |
| 2017 | Comparable | 7,016,270 | 205,397 | 2927.4 | ↓ 1.9% | 35,766 | 509.8 |
| 2016 | Comparable | 6,931,071 | 206,881 | 2984.8 | ↓ 1.4% | 31,809 | 458.9 |
| 2015 | Comparable | 6,828,065 | 206,618 | 3026 | ↓ 3.7% | 29,918 | 438.2 |
| 2014 | Comparable | 6,731,484 | 211,584 | 3143.2 | - | 25,838 | 383.8 |
More in Arizona: overview, safest cities, most dangerous, compare. Methodology — FBI UCR / Crime Data Explorer rates per 100,000 for Arizona (2014–2024); Census population where FBI denominators are missing.