Modesto, CA Crime Rate & Safety

FBI UCR Data Snapshot: Modesto, CA

Modesto, CA, reporting population 218,990 in 2024, recorded 1,436 violent crimes and 5,288 property crimes in the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program's Table 8 city-level submissions. The city's violent crime rate works out to 655.7 per 100,000 residents, while the property crime rate reaches 2414.7 per 100,000. Combining those two rates against national benchmarks yields a composite safety grade of F (High Risk), scoring 14 out of 100.

Within the violent crime count, aggravated assault accounted for 1,058 incidents, robbery 248, murder 7, and rape 123 in 2024. Property crime splits into larceny-theft (3,983), burglary (585), and motor vehicle theft (720); the FBI UCR Program tracks arson (126) as a separate offense category, so it is not included in the property crime total above. Larceny-theft and other property offenses typically dominate city crime counts, and larceny-theft leads Modesto's mix at 59.2% of all Part I offenses.

Against the national violent crime average, Modesto runs 86% above the US benchmark, and 38% above the California statewide rate. Translated to per-capita risk, the 2024 figures imply roughly a 1 in 33 statistical chance of being named in a crime report that year, narrowing to 1 in 153 for a violent offense. UCR figures reflect offenses reported to and submitted by local law enforcement and may undercount unreported crime.

These figures come from the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program, which compiles offenses voluntarily submitted by local law enforcement agencies. Rates are expressed per 100,000 residents so a small town and a large city sit on the same scale, 50 burglaries mean something very different in a town of 2,000 than in a city of 500,000. Two caveats matter when reading any city's numbers. First, a year with missing or partial agency reporting can understate true crime, so a sudden drop sometimes reflects a reporting gap rather than a real safety gain. Second, UCR counts reported offenses, not convictions, and many crimes are never reported at all. Treat a grade as one input among several, not a final verdict on a place.